The economic calendar for the week ahead is packed with high-impact economic events that can drive sharp moves across currencies, equities, bonds, and commodities. With markets settling into the first full trading week of the new year, liquidity typically improves—meaning surprises in top-tier data (especially jobs and inflation) can translate into faster, cleaner price action.
This week’s theme is straightforward: inflation and labour-market momentum. Traders will be watching whether price pressures are cooling (or re-accelerating) and whether employment conditions remain resilient. Those two forces shape expectations for interest rates—and interest-rate expectations are the engine behind many big moves in FX, stock indices, government bonds, and even gold and oil. (Times below follow the calendar listing and are aligned with Dublin/GMT winter time.)
Week at a glance: the biggest volatility windows
- Mon (Jan 5): US ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
- Tue (Jan 6): A heavy run of Euro-area inflation/CPI updates (EUR)
- Wed (Jan 7): US ADP, ISM Services PMI, JOLTS (USD) + Australia CPI set (AUD)
- Thu (Jan 8): US Jobless Claims (USD) + Australia Trade Balance (AUD)
- Fri (Jan 9): US Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate (USD) and Canada jobs (CAD)
Monday, January 5: Manufacturing pulse + Europe/Switzerland openers
Switzerland: Retail Sales + Manufacturing PMI (CHF)
Early European hours bring Switzerland into focus:
- Retail Sales (Nov) at 07:30 (High)
- procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Dec) at 08:30 (High)
Why it matters: Swiss data can move USDCHF and EURCHF quickly because CHF is sensitive to risk sentiment and rate expectations. Stronger activity data can support CHF, while soft prints often reduce tightening expectations and can weigh on the currency.
Market impact to watch:
- CHF strength tends to pressure exporters but can signal “defensive” demand if risk sentiment is shaky.
- A surprising PMI move can spill into broader European FX early in the week.
Euro area: Unemployment Change (EUR)
- Unemployment Change (Dec) at 08:00 (High): forecast -20K vs previous -18.8K
Why it matters: Labour market conditions influence consumer spending capacity and the policy outlook for the ECB. A “better-than-expected” unemployment reading can support EUR, particularly if it nudges rate expectations higher.
United States: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) at 15:00 (High): forecast 48.3 vs previous 48.2
- ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) at 15:00 (Medium): forecast 44.1 vs previous 44.0
Why it matters (in plain English): The ISM PMI is a widely-followed gauge of business conditions. Values above 50 signal expansion; below 50 suggest contraction. Even small changes can matter because markets trade the direction and the trend.
Market impact:
- Higher PMI than expected can lift USD and US yields, sometimes weighing on rate-sensitive equities.
- Weaker PMI can pressure USD and yields, while supporting bonds (and occasionally boosting equities if the market interprets it as “lower rates sooner”).
Tuesday, January 6: Inflation takes centre stage in Europe + oil inventory preview
Euro area and Germany: Inflation/CPI prints (EUR)
Tuesday includes multiple EUR inflation readings and German regional CPI updates (High/Medium), including:
- Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) at 07:45 (High)
- A cluster of German regional CPI updates around 09:00 (High)
- Another Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) at 13:00 (High): forecast 2.0% vs previous 2.3%
Why it matters: Inflation is the heartbeat of central bank policy. If inflation looks “sticky,” markets often price higher-for-longer rates. If inflation cools faster than expected, rate-cut expectations can rise.
Market impact:
- EURUSD can move sharply on inflation surprises—especially when the data meaningfully changes ECB pricing.
- Bond markets often react first: cooler inflation can push yields down and support equities; hotter inflation can do the opposite.
UK: DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (GBP)
- DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (Dec) at 09:30 (High): previous 3.4%
Why it matters: Inflation expectations help markets infer whether price pressures might persist. Persistent expectations can make central banks more cautious about easing.
United States: API Crude Oil Stock Change (USD)
- API Crude Oil Stock Change (Jan 02) at 21:30 (Medium)
Why it matters: This is a key lead-in for the official EIA numbers on Wednesday. Oil-sensitive assets (crude, energy equities, CAD) can react if inventories surprise.
Wednesday, January 7: The “macro-heavy” midweek block (USD + AUD + EUR + CAD)
Australia: CPI set (AUD)
A major batch hits at 00:30 (High), including:
- CPI (Nov) (High)
- Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Nov): forecast 3.1% vs previous 3.3% (High)
- Weighted Median CPI YoY (Nov): forecast 3.2% vs previous 3.4% (High)
Why it matters: Australia CPI feeds directly into RBA policy expectations. Markets often react more to “core” style measures (trimmed mean/weighted median) than headline alone.
Market impact:
- AUDUSD can spike if core inflation surprises.
- Hotter inflation can lift Australian yields and support AUD; cooler inflation can do the reverse.
Euro area: Retail Sales + Germany labour (EUR)
- Retail Sales YoY (Nov) at 07:00 (High): forecast 1.2% vs previous 0.9%
- Retail Sales MoM (Nov) at 07:00 (High): forecast 0.2% vs previous -0.3%
- Germany Unemployment Change (Dec) at 08:55 (High): forecast 5K vs previous 1K
- Germany Unemployment Rate (Dec) at 08:55 (High): forecast 6.3% vs 6.3%
Why it matters: Retail sales reflect consumer demand. Labour stats influence wage pressure and spending power. Together they shape the growth/inflation mix the ECB watches.
United States: ADP + ISM Services + JOLTS (USD)
- ADP Employment Change (Dec) at 13:15 (High): forecast 50K vs previous -32K
- ISM Services PMI (Dec) at 15:00 (High): forecast 52.3 vs previous 52.6
- JOLTS Job Openings (Nov) at 15:00 (High): forecast 7.73M vs previous 7.67M
Why it matters: This is the market’s “setup” for Friday’s jobs report. While ADP doesn’t perfectly predict Non-Farm Payrolls, it can still jolt rate expectations. ISM Services matters because services dominate US economic activity. JOLTS is watched for labour-market tightness.
Market impact:
- Strong data can strengthen USD and push Treasury yields higher.
- If yields jump, high-growth equities can wobble; banks and value sectors may benefit.
- Softer data can support bonds and sometimes lift equities—depending on recession fears.
Canada: Ivey PMI (CAD)
- Ivey PMI (Dec) at 15:00 (High): forecast 49.5 vs previous 48.4
Why it matters: A directional read on business conditions that can influence USDCAD, especially alongside oil moves.
Energy: EIA Crude Oil Stocks (USD)
- EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Jan 02) at 15:30 (Medium)
Why it matters: Volatility in oil can spill into inflation expectations, energy stocks, and commodity-linked currencies (notably CAD).
Thursday, January 8: Trade balance signals + US Jobless Claims spotlight
Australia: Balance of Trade (AUD)
- Balance of Trade (Nov) at 00:30 (High): forecast A$5.2B vs previous A$4.385B
Why it matters: Trade surplus/deficit can influence currency flows over time and can move AUD on release, especially if it shifts growth expectations.
Japan: Consumer Confidence (JPY)
- Consumer Confidence (Dec) at 05:00 (High): forecast 37.9 vs previous 37.5
Why it matters: A sentiment pulse that can affect USDJPY in thinner Asian hours.
Switzerland: SNB Minutes (CHF)
- SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 08:30 (Medium)
Why it matters: Traders scan for tone—concern about inflation, currency strength, or growth.
United States: Jobless Claims (USD)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 03) at 13:30 (High): forecast 205K vs previous 199K
- Continuing Claims (Dec 27) at 13:30 (High): forecast 1851K vs previous 1866K
Why it matters: Jobless claims are one of the timeliest labour indicators. In a week where Friday’s payrolls dominate, Thursday’s claims can meaningfully shift expectations.
Market impact:
- A surprise jump in claims can pressure USD and yields; a surprise drop can do the opposite.
- Claims can also move equity index futures if the market reads it as growth-positive or recession-warning.
Friday, January 9: The main event — US & Canada jobs (and China inflation early)
China: Inflation Rate YoY (CNY)
- Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) at 01:30 (High): forecast 0.6% vs previous 0.7%
Why it matters: China inflation influences global growth sentiment and commodity demand assumptions, which can ripple into AUD, CAD, and broader risk appetite.
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (CHF)
- Unemployment Rate (Dec) at 08:00 (High): forecast 2.9% vs previous 2.9%
United States: Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment + Wages (USD)
All at 13:30 (High/Medium):
- Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec): forecast 55K vs previous 64K (High)
- Unemployment Rate (Dec): forecast 4.5% vs previous 4.6% (High)
- Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Dec): forecast 3.6% vs previous 3.5% (Medium)
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Dec): forecast 0.3% vs previous 0.1% (Medium)
Why it matters: This is the single most watched monthly release for rates and FX. Payroll growth speaks to demand and growth momentum; wages speak to inflation persistence; unemployment captures labour slack.
Typical market reactions:
- Stronger jobs + hotter wages → higher yields, stronger USD, possible equity wobble (rate sensitivity).
- Weaker jobs + cooler wages → lower yields, softer USD, bonds bid; equities may rally if it implies easier policy (unless recession fear dominates).
- The biggest moves often come from the “mix” (e.g., strong payrolls but cooling wages).
Canada: Employment Change + Unemployment Rate (CAD)
Also at 13:30 (High):
- Employment Change (Dec): forecast -5K vs previous +53.6K
- Unemployment Rate (Dec): forecast 6.7% vs previous 6.5%
Why it matters: With US and Canada data dropping simultaneously, USDCAD can see fast two-way volatility—especially if oil is moving at the same time.
Later Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD)
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) at 15:00 (High): forecast 53.0 vs previous 52.9
Actionable takeaways for the week
- Plan your risk around the release clusters. The highest volatility windows are Wed 13:15–15:00 and Fri 13:30.
- Watch rates first, then FX, then equities. Yields often transmit the “true” interpretation of data.
- For FX traders: EURUSD (EU inflation + US jobs), AUDUSD (Australia CPI + trade), USDJPY (risk tone + US yields), USDCAD (jobs + oil) are the natural “event pairs.”
- Expect whipsaws on Friday. The first move is not always the real move—wages and revisions can change the market’s read within minutes.
Conclusion: A week defined by labour, inflation, and rate expectations
This week’s economic calendar is built for movement: inflation updates across Europe and Australia, a dense US macro block midweek, and a high-stakes Non-Farm Payrolls finale on Friday alongside Canada’s jobs report. If you’re trading or investing actively, the edge comes from preparation—knowing when volatility is most likely and which assets are most sensitive to each release.
