If you trade FX, the final days of December and the first sessions of January can be deceptively volatile. Liquidity often thins out around year-end, which means spreads can widen and “normal” moves can get exaggerated—especially when high-impact data drops or central-bank commentary hits the wires.
Below is a trader-focused breakdown of the most important events on next week’s economic calendar and what they could mean for major pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.
The 3 biggest themes this week
1) Japan: BoJ tone check (Sunday night / Monday Asia)
- BoJ Summary of Opinions (JPY) – Medium impact – Sun, Dec 28 (23:50)
This is your early-week JPY catalyst. The Summary of Opinions can shift expectations around the Bank of Japan’s policy path—especially if it hints at concerns around inflation persistence, wage dynamics, or the pace of normalization.
What to watch: Any language that sounds more confident on inflation → can support JPY and pressure USD/JPY lower. A cautious tone can do the opposite.
2) Eurozone: Inflation + Retail Sales in focus (Tuesday)
- Eurozone CPI / Inflation reads (EUR) – Low/Medium impact cluster – Tue, Dec 30 (08:00)
- Eurozone Retail Sales (EUR) – High impact – Tue, Dec 30 (08:00)
The Eurozone gets a heavy data bundle: inflation metrics plus high-impact retail sales. This combination matters because it helps shape the “growth vs inflation” narrative that drives ECB expectations.
Trading relevance:
- Hotter inflation than expected can lift EUR (higher rate expectations).
- Weak retail sales can weigh on EUR (growth concerns), even if inflation is sticky—creating choppy, two-way price action.
3) United States: FOMC Minutes + Jobless Claims (Tuesday/Wednesday)
- FOMC Minutes (USD) – High impact – Tue, Dec 30 (19:00)
- Initial Jobless Claims (USD) – High impact – Wed, Dec 31 (13:30)
These are the week’s top USD catalysts. Minutes can reshape how the market interprets the Fed’s reaction function (inflation tolerance, labor-market sensitivity, and timing of future adjustments). Jobless claims then acts as a quick “reality check” on labor conditions.
Pairs to watch: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF—plus risk sentiment spillover into AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
Day-by-day: What matters most
Monday, Dec 29: US trade + housing + energy (USD/CAD sensitivity too)
Key US releases include Goods Trade Balance (High impact) and Pending Home Sales (Medium impact), plus multiple EIA energy inventory prints.
- Why traders care: Trade balance can move USD on growth and demand expectations. Housing data can influence rate-sensitive USD flows.
- Oil angle: EIA crude and gasoline stock changes can impact crude pricing, which often spills into CAD (watch USD/CAD) when oil reacts sharply.
Also note the Myfxbook sentiment updates (multiple pairs, medium impact) which can be useful as a positioning “temperature check”—especially in thin liquidity.
Tuesday, Dec 30: Eurozone data dump + US home prices + FOMC Minutes (biggest day)
This is the standout session:
- Eurozone Inflation + Retail Sales (High) in the European morning
- US Case-Shiller / House Price data + Chicago PMI (Medium) later
- FOMC Minutes (High) into the US evening
Practical takeaway: Expect volatility across EUR pairs early, then a potential second wave of USD movement after the Minutes.
Wednesday, Dec 31: China PMI + US jobless claims (risk sentiment meets USD)
- China NBS Manufacturing PMI (High) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (High) are key for risk appetite and commodity-linked currencies (AUD/NZD).
- US Initial Jobless Claims (High) can move USD quickly—even more so if liquidity is thin ahead of the holiday.
Market behavior note: Year-end positioning can amplify reactions—watch for fast spikes, stop runs, and reversals.
Thursday, Jan 1: New Year’s Day (reduced liquidity)
Most major markets are on holiday closures.
Even if your platform is open in some form, conditions are often poor for execution. Many traders treat this as a risk management day,—not a “force trades” day.
Friday, Jan 2: Switzerland PMI + Euro unemployment + UK housing (back to business)
As markets re-open more fully:
- Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (High)
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (High)
- UK Nationwide House Price Index (Medium)
Pair focus: USD/CHF and EUR/CHF may react to Swiss PMI surprises; EUR pairs watch unemployment; GBP/USD may respond to UK housing sentiment.
Trading plan notes for the week
- Prioritize risk management: Reduce position size around the Eurozone Tuesday releases, FOMC Minutes, and US Jobless Claims.
- Expect “holiday liquidity” behavior: Wider spreads and whipsaws are common in the final sessions of the year and the first session back.
- Mark your charts: Build a simple “volatility schedule” so you’re not surprised by high-impact windows.
